Q2 Survey Finds a Widening Divide Across Dive Industry Performance by William Cline

This Issue’s Table of Contents
category: Research (4 min read)

The businesses best positioned for the remainder of 2026 will be those that connect travel, training, equipment, and local community participation rather than treating them as separate revenue lines.

William Cline, Publisher, Scuba Diving Industry Magazine and President, Cline Group

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THE 2ND QUARTER 2026 survey does not show a single, uniform business climate. It shows a widening divide. The Big Picture: Travel improved over last year, and certifications stabilized following a difficult first quarter.

At the same time, gross revenue and equipment sales remained under pressure. The optimism expressed entering Q2 did not fully materialize, and expectations for Q3 have become more cautious.

Key Insights at a Glance:

Gross revenue remained under pressure, with 45.6% reporting lower revenue than in Q2 2025 and 24.6% reporting higher revenue.
Equipment sales followed a similar pattern, with 46.7% reporting lower sales and 26.7% reporting higher sales.
Certifications improved from Q1 2026, when 54.4% reported declines. In Q2, that figure improved to 40.4%, while 42.3% reported certification activity remained about the same.
Travel was the strongest category. In Q2 2026, 34.1% reported higher travel sales and 29.5% reported lower sales. Travel was the only major category in which growth exceeded decline.
Travel also improved year over year. In Q2 2025, 23.2% reported higher travel sales and 34.1% reported lower sales.
Expectations for Q3 remain cautious. Respondents expecting declines outnumber those expecting growth in gross revenue, certifications, and equipment sales. Travel appears more stable, with 59.5% expecting sales to remain about the same.

The Bottom Line: The Q2 results show an active but increasingly selective market. Travel demand remains resilient, while equipment sales, certifications, and overall revenue continue to face pressure. The businesses best positioned for the remainder of 2026 will be those that connect travel, training, equipment, and local community participation rather than treating them as separate revenue lines.

Q2 Survey Finds a Widening
Divide Across Dive Industry Performance
by William Cline

Q2 2026 Key Highlights:

45.6% of respondents reported lower gross revenue in Q2 2026 compared with Q2 2025.
24.6% reported higher gross revenue.
46.7% reported lower equipment sales, while 26.7% reported higher sales.
40.4% reported fewer new-diver certifications and referrals, while 42.3% reported about the same.
34.1% reported higher travel sales, compared with 29.5% reporting lower sales.
For Q3, 46.6% expect gross revenue to remain about the same, 31.0% expect a decrease, and 22.4% expect an increase.

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U.S. Dive Certification Snapshot: U.S. dive retailers are estimated to have issued 38,848 new open-water certifications in Q2 2026, compared with an estimated 14,738 in Q1 2026 and 27,921 in Q2 2025.

Tropical Operators: Average open-water certifications among tropical dive shops, liveaboards, and resorts reached 19.9 certifications per location in Q2 2026, compared with 12.6 in Q1 2026 and 35.7 in Q2 2025.

Projected Outlook – Gross Sales: For Q3 2026, 46.6% expect gross revenue to remain about the same, while 31.0% expect a decrease and 22.4% expect an increase. This represents a more cautious outlook than respondents expressed entering Q2.

Projected Outlook – Certifications, Travel and Equipment Sales: The most common expectation for Q3 2026 is for each category to remain about the same. This includes 46.2% for certifications, 59.5% for travel sales, and 41.3% for equipment sales. However, respondents expecting declines continue to outnumber those expecting growth in certifications and equipment sales.

Respondent Profile: Facility owners and management staff represented 78.5% of all respondents.

A complete list of all quarterly surveys can be found on WilliamCline.com.

This survey has been conducted for over 26 years and remains the only forecasting tool for the global scuba diving industry. Need research help? Reach out to William, we conduct custom and propriatory research often for diving clients.

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