Some positive certification numbers were reported, leading to pipeline improvement moving into the last quarter of 2026.
THE THIRD-QUARTER 2026 Cline Group survey offers encouraging signs for dive businesses, led by stronger open water certification figures among U.S. retailers and an improved fourth-quarter outlook. The estimated U.S. retailer open water certification total rose approximately 33% over Q3 2025, while expectations for gross sales, certifications and travel improved compared with the projections respondents made a year earlier.
Training Leads the Improvement
U.S. retailers averaged 67.9 open water certifications per location, compared with 51.6 in Q3 2025, an increase of approximately 24%. The corresponding estimated national open water certifications totals rose from 50,910 to 67,676. The percentage changes differ because the average per retailer and the extrapolated national total are separate calculations.
The retailer table also shows estimated resort-course volume rising approximately 60%, from 22,028 to 35,227. This refers to the resort-course category reported by retailers, rather than a measurement of revenue growth at destination resorts.
Travel respondents reported stronger training activity as well. Their average open water certifications increased from 19.9 to 29.0, approximately 46%. Their non-open-water average also increased, from 16.2 to 51.2. For businesses connecting training with travel, these results offer an encouraging sign of activity around the experiences and education they sell.
A More Encouraging Fourth Quarter
The outlook comparisons strengthen the positive story. Thirty percent of applicable respondents expected gross sales to increase in Q4 2026, compared with 25% expressing that expectation for Q4 2025. The share anticipating declines eased from 33.3% to 31.4%.
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Certification expectations also improved. The share projecting growth rose from 17.9% to 19.6%, while the share expecting declines fell substantially, from 44.9% to 30.4%. Half expected certifications to remain unchanged.
Travel expectations moved in the same direction. The share anticipating growth increased from 22.4% to 23.9%, while expected declines fell from 28.9% to 21.7%. A majority, 54.3%, expected unchanged travel sales. Together, these comparisons describe a less pessimistic outlook than respondents reported a year earlier.
Sales Remain Uneven
The improvements do not extend equally across every measure. In Q3, 28.8% reported higher gross sales, compared with 32.4% in the 2025 survey. Equipment remained more difficult: 12.5% reported higher sales, versus 30.3% a year earlier. The fourth-quarter equipment outlook also softened, with 17.6% expecting growth, down from 23.0%.
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Training gains were not universal either.
Independent instructors averaged 9.7 open water certifications, compared with 25.1 in Q3 2025. Their experience differs markedly from the retailer and travel groups.
For retailers, the stronger certification averages provide a reason to stay close to newly trained divers. Continuing education, equipment consultations and dive travel can help turn that initial participation into an ongoing relationship. Suppliers and travel partners have an opportunity to support those efforts.
These are voluntary surveys with changing respondent groups. US certification figures are extrapolations, and outlook percentages describe expectations, not completed sales. Within those limits, stronger retailer training figures and improved expectations for three major business categories give the industry concrete reasons for encouragement heading into year-end.
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