25 Years of Dive Industry Research – Q4 2025: A Rebuilding Year Ahead by William Cline

A Deep Dive Into 4th Quarter 2025’s Survey Results

AFTER 25 YEARS of conducting this quarterly survey, I have learned that the most important signals in the dive industry are rarely the loudest ones. Revenue numbers tend to dominate conversations, yet they often reflect decisions made months earlier. Certifications, on the other hand, represent forward motion. They indicate whether new divers are entering the system and whether existing divers are advancing within it.

The fourth quarter of 2025 reinforces that distinction clearly. If we focus only on revenue, the year appears uneven. If we look at certifications, however, we see structural improvement that carries far more long-term importance.

Revenue: Stable to Soft, But Not Collapsing

In Q4, 38.2% of respondents reported gross revenues that were less or significantly less than the same quarter in 2024. Another 30.4% reported results that were essentially unchanged. Only 31.4% reported increases. That distribution does not describe broad financial recovery. It describes an industry that remains mixed, with many operators holding ground and others still facing pressure.

Equipment sales reflect even greater caution. Fifty-seven percent of respondents reported equipment sales were less or significantly less than Q4 2024. Only 22.8% reported improvement. Equipment remains the most sensitive category in our system. It responds quickly when customers hesitate and recovers only after engagement and confidence have already improved elsewhere.

If revenue and equipment were the only measures we considered, 2025 might appear flat at best. However, certifications present a materially different narrative.

Certifications: The Structural Shift

In Q4, 22.2% of respondents reported certification activity was more or significantly more than the same period in 2024. Forty percent reported results that were the same, while 37.8% reported less. That balance is far healthier than equipment performance and signals stability returning to the front end of the system.

Across the full year, Open Water certifications increased approximately 25% in 2025 compared to 2024, with the strongest growth occurring in the second half of the year. That 25% increase is not incremental. It represents structural strengthening in new diver intake.

Early in 2025, Open Water activity was soft across many operators. Mid-year, results stabilized. In the second half, certification activity accelerated meaningfully. By Q4, the rebound was measurable and sustained. The pattern was not accidental. It reflected renewed inflow of new participants into the sport.

Every downstream revenue category in this industry depends on a steady inflow of new divers. Travel bookings, equipment purchases, continuing education courses, and instructor certifications all begin with Open Water. When Open Water weakens, the entire system eventually contracts. When it strengthens, the system rebuilds.

The U.S. Certification Snapshot

The U.S. numbers reinforce the broader pattern. Based on retailer responses and extrapolated across 986 U.S. dive retailers, the fourth quarter produced an estimated 34,487 new Open Water certifications. In addition, there were 47,420 continuing education certifications, 775 instructor certifications, and 14,954 resort or Discover Scuba experiences.

Those totals provide scale. On average, that represents roughly 35 new certifications per retailer in Q4 and approximately 48 continuing education certifications per store. Continuing education exceeded entry-level Open Water certifications during the quarter.

That detail is significant. It tells us divers were not simply entering the system; they were progressing within it. A pipeline is not defined solely by new intake. It is defined by movement through stages of development.

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Continuing Education: Engagement Drives Momentum

Continuing education certifications are often the clearest signal that divers are active. When divers pursue advanced training, they are investing in their skills and preparing for further experiences. They are more likely to travel. They are more likely to upgrade equipment. They are more likely to remain engaged long term.

The late-year expansion in continuing education supports expectations that travel demand should remain stable or improve in coming quarters. It also suggests equipment conversion may strengthen once the certification gains fully flow through the system.

Travel Stability and Equipment Volatility

Travel performance in Q4 aligns with this interpretation. Forty-six point three percent of respondents reported travel sales were the same as last year, while 28.0% reported increases and 25.6% reported decreases. Travel held steady during a period of uneven equipment performance.

Equipment remains the lagging indicator. With 57% reporting declines in Q4, it is clear that many operators have not yet realized the financial benefit of the improved pipeline. Equipment conversion often trails certification growth. This sequencing is consistent with patterns observed repeatedly over the last two decades.

Instructor Certifications: Expanding Capacity

Instructor certification activity increased in 2025. While 775 IDC certifications in Q4 may appear modest relative to Open Water totals, instructor growth expands capacity. It determines how many courses can be scheduled and how broadly new demand can be absorbed.

When instructor certifications rise alongside Open Water growth, it suggests operators are preparing for sustained demand rather than reacting to temporary spikes. Capacity expansion reflects confidence and planning.

2025 in Perspective: A Rebuilding Year

Looking across all four quarters, 2025 was not defined by broad financial expansion. It was defined by rebuilding. Early weakness gave way to stabilization. Stabilization transitioned into second-half acceleration in certifications. The defining characteristic of the year was re-alignment of the pipeline.

Growth was concentrated among higher-volume operators rather than evenly distributed across all participants. That concentration reinforces a consistent theme: opportunity exists, but execution determines participation.

Outlook for Q1 2026: Cautious Optimism

Forward-looking projections reflect the strengthened foundation entering 2026. Forty percent of respondents expect gross sales to increase in Q1, while 32.4% expect them to remain the same. Only 27.6% anticipate declines.

Certification projections are balanced, with 28.1% expecting increases and 43.8% expecting stability. Travel projections remain steady to positive. Equipment expectations remain cautious but more balanced than Q4’s backward-looking results.

These projections suggest operators recognize the improved pipeline entering 2026. The central question is no longer whether demand exists. The question is how effectively businesses convert it.

The Strategic Implication

If Open Water increased 25% year over year and continuing education expanded even more rapidly, the strategic focus for 2026 should center on conversion. That means aligning instructional capacity with marketing efforts, structuring continuing education pathways intentionally, and integrating travel discussions into advanced training conversations.

The data suggests the pipeline strengthened materially in 2025. Conversion strategy will determine how fully those gains translate into revenue performance in 2026.

The Bottom Line

With Q4 included, 2025 closes as a rebuilding year for the dive industry pipeline. Revenue was mixed. Equipment remained uneven. Yet the structural inputs improved materially. New diver creation increased. Continuing education engagement expanded. Instructional capacity strengthened.

After 25 years of tracking these cycles, one pattern remains consistent. Certifications lead and revenue follows. The fourth quarter of 2025 confirms that sequence once again. The pipeline strengthened before the revenue did. If momentum is maintained and broadened, the financial performance of 2026 should increasingly reflect the structural gains already underway. Click here for the full survey results.

These are printable PDFs for staff distribution, based on the three-year review from last month’s issue, plus the 4th quarter results. Email me with any questions or custom research requests.

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