How Geopolitical Events Are Shaping Dive Travel Confidence by William Cline

I was on the phone with Caradonna’s Tim Webb recently and he said something that stuck with me about needing to be up on world events due to the thousands of their customers traveling the globe. So it gave me an idea.

Over the past several weeks, we asked both dive professionals and diving consumers how global events are influencing travel behavior. The responses, while varied, point to a consistent and important conclusion. There is a shift occurring in dive travel, and it’s not just affecting the Middle East.

From the industry side, the impact is clear. Almost 80% of travel sellers report moderate to significant disruption in recent bookings, with over half reporting (55%) that they have seen cancellations and postponing of travel bookings in general. The effect is especially pronounced in regions tied to geopolitical tension. Travel connected to the Middle East shows extreme impact levels exceeding 80%, while Mexico, the Caribbean, and parts of Latin America reflect a more mixed but still meaningful level of disruption, generally in the moderate range.

Customer behavior reflects that pressure. About 32% of operators report customers postponing trips, while approximately 26% are seeing cancellations. Another 21% report customers actively switching destinations, leaving roughly 21%, reporting no noticeable change (see chart).

At the same time, nearly 70% of respondents report an increase in customer questions about travel insurance, with 42% indicating a significant increase. What was once an afterthought is now part of the core decision-making process for travel.

But the most valuable insight from the industry survey is not just what is happening. It is how operators are responding. We asked an open-ended question about how they were dealing with the disruptions and here are some of the responses: 

• “We are reaching out to clients to answer questions, trying to save what bookings we have.”
• “Increased communication and information updates.”
• “Choosing destinations with minimal conflict and requiring travel insurance.”

Across the board, travel sellers are spending more time guiding customers through uncertainty. Communication has become central to the process. Flexibility has become a requirement. And in many cases, travel insurance is no longer optional:

• “We require everyone to have full travel insurance now.”
• “Encouraging trip insurance and educating customers on options.”

Travel sellers are also adapting their offerings. Many are redirecting travelers to alternative destinations, adjusting travel routes, and introducing more flexible booking terms:

• “Switching destinations.”
• “Seeking alternate travel routes or alternate destinations.”
• “Give credit for future bookings.”

The role of the dive travel seller is evolving. This is no longer just about organizing trips. It is about managing risk, setting expectations, and helping customers make informed decisions in a more complex environment.

In some cases, the adjustment has been more extreme as one respondent replied:

• “Quit doing dive travel.”

While that response is not widespread, it underscores the uneven nature of the impact across the industry.

Looking ahead, the outlook reflects continued caution. Approximately 72% of sellers expect either a moderate or significant decline in dive travel demand through the remainder of 2026, with 34% anticipating a significant decline for the rest of 2026. However, a smaller segment, about 10%, expect growth in alternative destinations, reinforcing the idea that demand might shift rather than decrease.

At the same time, the consumer responses tell a slightly different story.

While the sample size is smaller, the pattern is consistent. The majority of divers surveyed (85%) indicate they are an ‘active diver’ and take at least one trip out of their home country per year to dive. Of these, 53% say they have already booked an international dive trip within the next 12 months. The data shows that 31% are planning to book but not committed as of yet. Rather than canceling outright, many are delaying decisions. A significant portion indicated they are “waiting to book,” “watching the situation,” or pushing travel further out, in some cases into 2027.

The booking windows are very much tied to each region where the divers live. Long-haul trips are still in the 12+ months window, whereas closer destinations are mostly booked in the three to six-month window.

Consumer responses also highlight an important nuance. Not all destinations are viewed equally. Perceived safety varies by region. The Caribbean/Bahamas remain relatively stable in the eyes of most divers, with generally low concern levels. Mexico and parts of Central America and the Mediterranean show more mixed sentiment, ranging from neutral to elevated concern. Southeast Asia reflects moderate concern, often tied to travel logistics and transit routes. The Middle East and Red Sea stand apart, with consistently high concern levels across respondents as would be expected with a war raging in the region.

This reinforces what many operators are already experiencing. Travel demand is not disappearing. It is shifting geographically and becoming more selective.

When viewed together, the two datasets reveal something important: Travel sellers and retailers are feeling the impact through slower bookings, increased cancellations, and more complex customer interactions. Divers, however, are signaling that the desire to travel is still very much intact. They are simply taking longer to decide, asking more questions, and committing closer to departure.

That gap between perception and behavior matters.

It suggests that what the industry is experiencing today is not a loss of demand, but a compression of the decision-making window. Confidence has become the key variable.

And in that environment, the role of the travel advisor becomes more important than ever. As one travel seller responded:

• “I am educating myself on travel insurance options, and partnering with a dive travel agency who can speak to options at a high level to my customers.”

The takeaway is straightforward: The interest is still there. The demand has not gone away, but where they wish to go has very much changed for the near future. The good news is a large percentage of consumer divers rely on their local dive shop for information on where to go. Pointing to the need for retailers to stay current on what’s happening in the world. Because today, more than ever, divers are not just choosing where to go. They are deciding when they feel confident enough to go.